The Bullet Trail: A Year of Ammunition Seizures in the Caribbean and What They Mean for Public Health
By Yulia Yarina
While firearm seizures often take centre stage in research and media articles, ammunition receives far less attention. Pistols, shotguns, and rifles cannot maim and kill without ammunition, yet ammunition seizures are frequently overlooked when not accompanied by firearms. The analysis of ammunition seizures can, nevertheless, provide important insights into the nature and scope of armed violence in a given region and, by extension, the public health risks posed by firearm-related injuries and deaths.
The rate of violent deaths in Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member states is almost three times the global average. Firearms are used in more than half of all homicides in the whole Caribbean region, and in some countries this proportion reaches 90 per cent. Furthermore, the emerging proliferation of large-calibre firearms, as well as fully automatic weapons (including those equipped with conversion devices) is of particular concern for the region.
Weapons Compass: The Caribbean Firearms Study, co-published by the CARICOM Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS) and the Small Arms Survey in 2023, analysed illicit small arms and ammunition in the Caribbean from 2016 to 2021.
Building on this foundation, the research for this blog post tracked recent ammunition seizures in the region over a one-year period. It relied on relevant open-source media articles and newsletters compiled by CARICOM IMPACS to generate a data set of regional firearms and ammunition seizure incidents. While acknowledging the limitations and potential biases inherent in media reporting, the 474 documented seizures offer a useful starting point to spark a conversation about the importance of tackling illicit flows of ammunition for addressing armed violence — particularly in this region.
Ammunition seizures from October 2023 to October 2024
Between 24 October 2023 and 28 October 2024, authorities in the region seized ammunition, with or without firearms, at least 455 times (or 96 per cent of the 474 documented seizures of firearms and ammunition) in 19 countries and territories. The three countries in which seizures were most frequently reported in this data set — Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, and Guyana — accounted for nearly 60 per cent of these cases (see Table 1). In 110 cases (or 23%), ammunition was seized together with drugs. The seizures occurred in diverse locations, including wharfs and ports, private apartments, and vehicles. While few of the cases under review took place in Haiti, it is important to note that significant instances of ammunition trafficking and diversion have recently been reported in this country.
Table 1 Ammunition seizure incidents per country (n=455)
Where the quantity of ammunition was provided, about 72 per cent of seizures included 15 rounds or less (247 instances),¹ which may have mainly concerned the ammunition contained in the seized firearms (see Table 2).² Almost one-third of the cases involved more than 15 rounds — including five seizures exceeding 1,000 rounds — which raises questions about their intended use, especially considering that legal ownership of ammunition is strongly restricted in the region. Among these cases, some involved ammunition seized together with firearms concealed in barrels at wharfs, while another case involved the seizure of more than 1,600 rounds at a private residence.
Table 2 Number of rounds seized
Analysing the specific types of ammunition recovered can strengthen understanding of ammunition seizures and their implication for violence in the region. Different calibres and ammunition types are often associated with different types of firearms, and can therefore indicate the presence and prevalence of certain weaponry in the locations where they are seized. While the lethality of a gunshot wound may depend on a variety of factors — including the level of skill of the shooter, the location of the injury, and the victim’s age — the misuse of medium- and large-calibres (such as 9 mm Luger, .38, .40, 7.62 x 39 mm, or 5.56 x 45 mm) also increases the lethality of shootings, especially when compared with the use of low-calibre handgun ammunition (such as .32, for instance).
The most documented calibre (in 140 instances) was 9 mm Luger ammunition — commonly referred to as ‘9 mm’ ammunition, or as 9 x 19 mm or 9 mm parabellum (see Table 3). This finding is consistent with the Survey’s and CARICOM IMPACS’ previous analysis that showed that 9 mm Luger pistols, such as certain Glocks, are among the most frequently seized firearms in the region — as well as by far the most commonly used ammunition calibre in violent crime in ten countries and territories of the Caribbean between 2016 and 2021. It is worth noting that 9 mm Luger ammunition can also be used with some sub-machine guns, as well as with pistols that are illicitly converted to automatic fire through the use of so called ‘conversion devices’. Given the illicit circulation and use of conversion devices and high-capacity magazines in the region, it is important to continue to monitor this trend.
Table 3 Top ten types of ammunition seized (as reported in media articles)
Ammunition typically used with AK- and AR-15 pattern rifles was seized less frequently during the period under review: 18 cases involved 7.62 x 39 mm ammunition, 19 concerned 5.56 x 45 mm rounds, and 7 referred to .223 cartridges. While such ammunition was seized in a relatively small proportion of the cases³ recorded in this data set, these figures exceed the 2.5 per cent of rifle-calibre ammunition recovered at the scenes of violent crime in ten countries and territories between 2016 and 2021, as documented in the Caribbean Firearms Study. Although these data sets are not fully comparable, the non-negligeable presence of these cartridges in the data set — as well as recent reports about their persistent proliferation — highlights the risks associated with the proliferation of AK- and AR-15 pattern rifles, which are weapons often associated with organized crime and gang violence. The potential use of such ammunition in criminal shootings also contributes to an increased risk of severe injuries or death, putting an additional strain on the region’s hospitals.
Seizures of rifles, automatic pistols, and sub-machine guns
An analysis of the weapons seized together with this ammunition is also revealing. Among the 474 seizures under review, at least 79 instances involved the recovery of automatic pistols (primarily originally semi-automatic pistols equipped with conversion devices), semi- or fully automatic rifles (primarily AK- and AR-15 pattern rifles), and sub-machine guns. Specific makes and models identified in the articles included Kel-Tech, Intra-tec, and M4 Carbines, as well as conversion devices, also known as selector switches. In 60 of these cases, the weapons were seized together with ammunition. As would be expected, the most common ammunition seized with such weapons was of the following calibres: 7.62 x 39 mm (13 cases), 9 mm Luger (12 cases), and 5.56 x 45 mm (11 cases). Furthermore, in general, more rounds of ammunition were recovered when rifles and sub-machine guns were also seized: for instance, one case involved the seizure of 5,280 rounds together with what appears to be a Radical Firearms AR-15 rifle. Among these firearms, the proliferation of fully automatic weapons is also of particular concern for public health, as such firearms are harder for their user to control, and may result in multiple injuries not only to the intended target but also among bystanders.
Implications for armed violence and public health
Armed violence in the Caribbean has considerable public health implications, as emphasized by the CARICOM heads of governments in the 2024 George-Bridge declaration on crime and violence as a public health issue. Previous research in the region has showed that the average medical expenditures for treating a single gunshot wound can exceed health spending per capita by ratios ranging from 2:1 to 11:1 in the Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica. In addition to its direct human impact, firearm-related crime and violence therefore also divert scarce public and private resources for treating victims, supporting their families, and prosecuting offenders. These effects are particularly profound in small island states, where public services are generally competent but may lack the resources to deal with sudden surges in violence and related injuries.
Ammunition trafficking is an important part of firearms trafficking and violence. More than a quarter of the reviewed seizure incidents involved more than 15 cartridges, and some concerned the trafficking and illegal possession of several thousands of rounds. While handgun ammunition in general accounts for the majority of seizures, the proliferation of medium- and large-calibre handgun ammunition and of cartridges typically used with rifles is not negligible. The parallel illicit circulation of a range of firearms, as well as seizures of conversion devices that can turn handguns and rifles into fully automatic weapons, is particularly worrying. Taken together, these trends suggest that perpetrators in the Caribbean have access to specific types of small arms and ammunition calibres that can potentially increase the severity of firearm injuries and put an additional strain on the public health system. Medical staff from certain countries in the region interviewed for previous research have already highlighted these risks, and observed a trend towards ‘a higher number of “deaths upon arrival” with multiple injuries at hospitals’.
Illicit ammunition must be treated as a core element of armed violence and recognized as a growing concern for public health — both in the Caribbean and globally. Adopting a public health approach for preventing armed violence requires the collection of data to define and monitor the problem, the identification of risk and protection factors, the development and testing of prevention strategies, and the widespread adoption of successful interventions. Such an approach must therefore actively integrate the collection of accurate and detailed data on the firearms and ammunition used in shootings. Improving point of injury trauma care for the victims of firearms violence also has the potential to reduce fatality rates, particularly among those victims suffering single gunshot wounds.⁴
Strengthening ammunition tracing mechanisms, improving police capacity to recover and analyse ballistic evidence, and expanding efforts to investigate cartridge recoveries are equally essential steps towards addressing this challenge from the supply side. The UN’s Global Framework for Through-life Conventional Ammunition Management, adopted in 2023, contains relevant guidance for preventing, identifying, and investigating the diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of ammunition. And while tracing cartridges may indeed come with challenges and costs, criminals replace their ammunition more frequently than they acquire firearms. Investigating illicit ammunition therefore potentially provides information on more up-to-date supply chains and, consequently, entry points for action. Policymakers can rise to the challenge by placing illicit ammunition flows firmly on the counter-trafficking agenda and investing the necessary resources to ensure that illicit ammunition is no longer overlooked in efforts to curb armed violence.
[1]^ Seizures could contain different amounts of different ammunition types. One seizure could, for example, have 13 rounds of 9 mm, 65 rounds of .45, and 500 rounds of .223. Calculations presented here take this factor into account.
[2]^ One single magazine of a Glock 19 pistol, the most commonly used hand gun, can hold up to 15 rounds.
[3]^ Such ammunition was seized in 18% of cases of known ammunition types and 10% of all cases, including unspecified ammunition types.
[4]^ An increased emphasis on emergency casualty care has also shown promise in reducing preventable death and disability among victims of improvised explosive devices in conflict zones.
The author is grateful to Nicolas Florquin, Frank Grosspietsch, Steven Hargarten, Matt Schroeder, Simon Anderson, Anne-Séverine Fabre, Maria Garcia-Joseph, Callixtus Joseph, and Callum Watson for their reviews and contributions.
This blog post was produced within the framework of the project ‘Pathway to Policy: Integrating Security and Public Health Responses to Firearms Trafficking and Violence in the Caribbean’, which is financed by Germany and implemented by the Small Arms Survey in partnership with the Caribbean Community Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (CARICOM IMPACS); the Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA); and the George Alleyne Chronic Disease Research Centre (GA-CDRC), a unit of the Caribbean Institute of Health Research (CAIHR) at the University of the West Indies (UWI). Blog posts are intended as a way for various Small Arms Survey collaborators and researchers to discuss small arms- and armed violence-related issues, and do not necessarily reflect the views of either the Small Arms Survey, its project partners, or donors.
